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UPM1V.HSE Recommendation Buy
Risk - Target price 16
  Share price 16.16
 
 Company Views - UPM-Kymmene
Estimates updated
Price updated
Page generated
Older estimates		 23.Oct.2003 22:26 (EEST)
6.Nov.2003 23:00 (EET)
7.Nov.2003 03:27 (EET)
 

Analyst: Henry Nurminen, +358 10 236 4709
henry.nurminen@mandatum.fi
EARNINGS BY PERIOD 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4e
 
* Net sales 2566.0 2679.0 2614.0 2616.0 2458.0 2501.0 2437.0 2457.0
Magazine Papers 837.0 905.0 894.0 941.0 764.0 815.0 839.0 825.0
Newsprint 340.0 336.0 358.0 347.0 305.0 326.0 308.0 308.0
Fine & Specialty Papers 602.0 625.0 612.0 610.0 588.0 565.0 567.0 550.0
Converting Industry 393.0 398.0 393.0 357.0 365.0 345.0 335.0 338.0
Wood Products Industry 347.0 404.0 358.0 380.0 375.0 426.0 382.0 402.0
Other operations 148.0 156.0 135.0 144.0 193.0 171.0 152.0 174.0
Internal sales -101.0 -145.0 -136.0 -163.0 -132.0 -147.0 -146.0 -140.0
* EBITDA 530.0 495.0 568.0 533.0 399.0 404.0 407.0 394.7
Depreciation -238.0 -230.0 -228.0 -322.0 -224.0 -225.0 -228.0 -225.0
* EBIT 292.0 265.0 340.0 211.0 175.0 179.0 179.0 169.7
Magazine Papers 93.0 77.0 101.0 82.0 29.0 32.0 53.0 45.4
Newsprint 39.0 37.0 48.0 46.0 18.0 18.0 20.0 18.5
Fine & Specialty Papers 94.0 91.0 111.0 63.0 76.0 56.0 63.0 53.9
Converting Industry 23.0 18.0 20.0 9.0 20.0 19.0 14.0 4.7
Wood Products Industry 8.0 14.0 5.0 10.0 10.0 18.0 1.0 12.5
Other operations 35.0 28.0 55.0 1.0 22.0 36.0 28.0 34.8
Net financial items -67.0 -72.0 -63.0 -71.0 -60.0 -47.0 -51.0 -60.0
* Pre-tax Profit 225.0 193.0 277.0 140.0 115.0 132.0 128.0 109.7
Taxes -65.2 -62.9 -93.8 -32.7 -37.0 -51.0 -45.0 -35.1
Minorities 1.0 0.0 0.0 1.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
* Net earnings 160.8 130.1 183.2 108.3 78.0 81.0 83.0 74.6

 
Net sales growth % 3.1% 5.6% 11.9% 2.3% -4.2% -6.6% -6.8% -6.1%
EBITDA % 20.7% 18.5% 21.7% 20.4% 16.2% 16.2% 16.7% 16.1%
EBIT % 11.4% 9.9% 13.0% 8.1% 7.1% 7.2% 7.3% 6.9%
EPS (adj) 0.31 0.25 0.35 0.21 0.15 0.15 0.16 0.14

Cumulative 2002Q1 2002Q2 2002Q3 2002Q4 2003Q1 2003Q2 2003Q3 2003Q4e
 
* Net sales 2566.0 5245.0 7859.0 10475.0 2458.0 4959.0 7396.0 9853.0
Magazine Papers 837.0 1742.0 2636.0 3577.0 764.0 1579.0 2418.0 3243.0
Newsprint 340.0 676.0 1034.0 1381.0 305.0 631.0 939.0 1247.0
Fine & Specialty Papers 602.0 1227.0 1839.0 2449.0 588.0 1153.0 1720.0 2270.0
Converting Industry 393.0 791.0 1184.0 1541.0 365.0 710.0 1045.0 1383.0
Wood Products Industry 347.0 751.0 1109.0 1489.0 375.0 801.0 1183.0 1585.0
Other operations 148.0 304.0 439.0 583.0 193.0 364.0 516.0 690.0
Internal sales -101.0 -246.0 -382.0 -545.0 -132.0 -279.0 -425.0 -565.0
* EBITDA 530.0 1025.0 1593.0 2126.0 399.0 803.0 1210.0 1604.7
Depreciation -238.0 -468.0 -696.0 -1018.0 -224.0 -449.0 -677.0 -902.0
* EBIT 292.0 557.0 897.0 1108.0 175.0 354.0 533.0 702.7
Magazine Papers 93.0 170.0 271.0 353.0 29.0 61.0 114.0 159.4
Newsprint 39.0 76.0 124.0 170.0 18.0 36.0 56.0 74.5
Fine & Specialty Papers 94.0 185.0 296.0 359.0 76.0 132.0 195.0 248.9
Converting Industry 23.0 41.0 61.0 70.0 20.0 39.0 53.0 57.7
Wood Products Industry 8.0 22.0 27.0 37.0 10.0 28.0 29.0 41.5
Other operations 35.0 63.0 118.0 119.0 22.0 58.0 86.0 120.8
Net financial items -67.0 -139.0 -202.0 -273.0 -60.0 -107.0 -158.0 -218.0
* Pre-tax Profit 225.0 418.0 695.0 835.0 115.0 247.0 375.0 484.7
Taxes -65.2 -128.2 -222.0 -254.7 -37.0 -88.0 -133.0 -168.1
Minorities 1.0 1.0 1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
* Net earnings 160.8 290.8 474.0 582.3 78.0 159.0 242.0 316.6

 
EBITDA % 20.7% 19.5% 20.3% 20.3% 16.2% 16.2% 16.4% 16.3%
EBIT % 11.4% 10.6% 11.4% 10.6% 7.1% 7.1% 7.2% 7.1%
EPS (adj) 0.31 0.56 0.91 1.12 0.15 0.30 0.46 0.60